Inflection Detected as Prices Tries to Confirm
Edge Levels (ESM4): 5200-05, 5210-12, 5220-25, 5230-35, 5255, 5269, 5275, 5283
It’s National Ferret Day, so please tell a trading friend about this newsletter if you think Mr. Market ferreted out some weak hands today!
You can access the MGI document HERE for the latest Edge Levels and insights.
I’m le tired so there’s no video today.
Just good ‘ole fashion text.
I'm long from 4254.50 based on an ostensible reclaim of the FOMC breakout zone
because I had to get in line for the Bull Flag.
Still,
this reclaim is a one-star trade.
We'll see if it works.
Lady Luck has been ghosting me as of late
yet that's a story for a long-form piece later.
Here’s a taste of what I mean:
I accepted the cracks in my subjective trading window yesterday.
You can't trend-trade an eternal 10-point chop with an arbitrary exit
and stay sane
or optimally profitable.
This chop is great for scalpers,
for sure.
Delta Imbalances have starred
and paid bounties of ticks.
Consolidation has been king.
So,
you have to sit with exposure to catch the trends
as if you are trolling for fish.
The necessity to sit is an objective truth.
Realizing this,
I held my long runner through the night yesterday
and got stopped when today happened.
It was my first overnight position since November.
Impeccable timing, eh?
Wednesday's "D" leg failed this morning,
sending Price lower
and SPY below its Wedge (red line above)
with a big fat Gap to punctuate
as Volatility fills out its own ABCD.
One week ago,
I mentioned Inflection1.
Did yesterday's idyllic False Breakout begin the confirmation?
Have these weeks of tight ranges signaled Distribution?
Or is this all just another fakeout in Mr. Market's dramatic theater?
If we exceed three consecutive red days in ES
Inflection may be upon us.
And if I had to read the crystal ball for April
(the crystal ball that doesn't exist)
I'd say a climactic trap at one more new high would be just dirty enough to make sense.
Yet good traders must react,
never predict.
So here are my nearby trades for tomorrow:
One-star: Breakout short of 5235, Reclaim long of 5255, Backtest short of 5276.
Two-star: Reclaim long of 5235, Backtest short of 5267
Three-star: Backtest short of 5283
This last one would be a statistical dream.
It's a critical pivot level from last week.
It's support (now resistance?) of Monday's Outside Bar.
It's the top of tomorrow's Expected Move.
I'll flip this long short,
with plenty of room,
near 5267.
And I'll be happy to fade the first squeeze.
I hope to see you in the livestream tomorrow!
Stay classy until then.
Our gentlemen’s agreement:
I give you free, valuable content.
You use my affiliate link (HERE) if you join Apex. Coupon code “MASTRO” gets you the best deal available. For Easter, they’re offering 80 PERCENT off until April 2!
Thank you for your attention.
Talk soon,
Mastro
PS You can follow me on Twitter HERE for breaking updates and analyses.
Remember, you can respond to any email, and I’ll reply within 24 hours. You can also click the button below:
I’d love to connect!